Population Concentrations as an Indicator for War – The Fight for Israel’s Existence on the Horizon
There are myriad cultural, historical, diplomatic, perceptual, security and economic challenges facing the Middle East. While the Middle East consists of anywhere from 18 to about 30 countries depending on perspective and sources (University of Texas, 2008), most people tend to immediately think Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories- especially Israel and the Palestinian territories. The most obvious threat to Israel’s existence hides in the population numbers and their concentrations. Much data can be skewed, but population numbers are more difficult to hide (Arieff, 2010, 54). The following key findings indicate a major war is shaping between Israelis and the Palestinians.
Population, Space and Time for 2009
The Middle East’s West Bank is about the size of Delaware and had a Palestinian population of 2,461,267 (Arieff, 2010, 54). The Gaza Strip is nearly the same size as Washington DC and had a population of 1,551,859 (Arieff, 2010, 54). Israel is approximately the size of New Jersey with a population of 7,233,701 (Arieff, 2010, 54).
The following are data for comparison sake based on 2009 US Census Bureau statistics. Delaware’s population in 2009 was 885,122 (US Census 2009). DC’s population number was 599,657. New Jersey’s population numbers were set at 8,707,739 (US Census 2009).
What Does this Data Say?
Comparatively speaking, the data says Palestinians, in the West Bank, lived in a space 2.78 times more concentrated that their US counterpart Delaware. The Palestinians of the Gaza Strip lived in a given geographical space 2.5 times more concentrated than their comparative model Washington DC. The Israelis were the only population to live UNDER their comparative US population, New Jersey, by 1.5 million, or 83% of New Jersey’s reported population numbers.
Now, take additional related population related data sets for 2009. The US Department of State reported the working population was over the age of 15, for Palestinians, which constituted over 56 percent of the Palestinian population (US Department of State, 2010). The highest unemployment concentration population was at the “15-29 years” range (US Department of State, 2010). The unemployment rates for the West Bank were 25.8 percent and the Gaza Strip was 42.3 percent (US Department of State, 2010).
The data up to this point indicates the Palestinians live in areas where there are limited resources and opportunities. The data highlights the largest population to suffer the strains of unemployment is in their prime; military age and/or terrorist recruitment age. Young people are supposed to be most excited about life, providing for a family, getting an education and looking forward to a future. However, they are very likely frustrated, limited, feel life is robbed from them and will find ways to release that energy in the form of terrorism and/or resistance movements.
These tensions will exacerbate when Israeli extremists push in to Palestinian territories to seize land from Palestinians they believed is owed to them, thereby reducing the Palestinian little Washington DC and Palestinian Delaware’s to local blocks or counties. Israel’s domestic policies favor those of Jewish heritage and Jewish expansionism; its policies, appears on the surface level, excludes local Palestinians (Arieff, 2010, 56, 58, 60). One suffering from such policies could reasonably construe this as a form of ethnic cleansing, and an accelerant to rally a people against a cause.
These tensions will be played by state and non-state actors such as Iran, Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, al Qaeda etc. who all wish to see the destruction of the state of Israel (Arieff, 2010, 56-58). These entities often provide various forms of clandestine and covert support to Palestinians to further instability within the Israeli regime in the form of terrorist attacks, as well as shape world public perception.
Other Destabilizers - What We Don’t See or Know
Further research is needed to ascertain the possibility of increasing one’s population in order to outbreed their opponent. While such supporting data was not found, it cannot be discounted. Rumors of this long-term strategy have been heard to occur regarding Muslim populations in Kosovo, Palestinian Territories and Europe as early as the late 90s. However, there is information stating that practicing Muslims simply do not believe in contraception as an acceptable lifestyle, while westernized cultures do, ergo, the rumored strategy of Muslims outbreeding their host nation may simply just be rumor. Regardless, this is a consideration some nations may need to take into account in order to help secure its sovereignty from a competing population.
The US must be careful in regards to their military, intelligence and security relationships with Israel or face the possibility of being an unintended proxy for perceived Israeli expansionist efforts. This will make Israel’s enemy and problems US enemy’s and problems. An example of this may be Israeli use of US made helicopters in strafing operations against concentrated Palestinian populations where there is a good chance non-combatants will be killed.
Concentrated population centers makes the conduct of surgical strikes extremely difficult without exacerbating local tensions due to civilian/non-combatant deaths. To minimize the potential for collateral damage Israel will need to improve their intelligence-based operations to meander through the population to their targets. Regardless of such efforts, however, the military is really the least effective tool to counter what Israel will perceive as extremism. Israel must come to the table and conduct substantive negotiations with the Palestinians to undermine the Palestinian combatant cause, sway moderate Palestinians from extremist state and non-state actors.
The Bottom Line
Israel’s fight for its very survival is on the horizon. There will come an absolute time when Israel and Palestinians have to develop a workable plan, or go to full-scale war…a scenario not seen before since Israel’s founding. However, Israel can currently address issues from a position of strength and fairness, but it is likely it will not do so due to its own extremists who strongly influence Israel’s policies which exclude Palestinian interests physically, morally and politically. And, when one creates and reinforces schisms along ethnic lines amongst parties within a shared territory, trouble will always breed at the seams. The Palestinians are not Israel’s main problem; it appears to be failed governance.
References
Arieff, Irwin. 2010. Global Issues: Middle East Peace Prospects; Is There Any Hope for Long-Term Peace? Los Angeles: Sage and Pine Forge. pp. 53-67.
Ghazi MA. 1993. 27Oct93. A family decision. The Muslim view. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12345272; accessed 27Aug11
Kilcullen, David. 2009. The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York: Oxford University Press, c2009
University of Texas. 2008. Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection - CIA Middle East Maps. http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/txu-oclc-192062619-middle_east_pol_2008.jpg; accessed 27Aug11.
US Census Bureau. 21Dec2009. (Excel Spread Sheet) Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009 (NST-EST2009-01). http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html; accessed 26Aug11.
US Department of State. 2010 Investment Climate Statement- BUREAU OF ECONOMIC, ENERGY AND BUSINESS AFFAIRS March 2010. http://www.state.gov/e/eeb/rls/othr/ics/2010/138910.htm; accessed 26Aug11.
- SWOT Hunter
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